AGP Executive Report

Fuel Security: Tajikistan is scrambling to replace falling Russian supplies after Ukraine-hit refinery disruptions cut gasoline shipments from Russia by half in July; the country boosted imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to 34,000 tons total, and is now negotiating with Kazakhstan as a priority plus China, Turkmenistan, Iran and Belarus. Power Demand Pressure: Central Asia’s summer heat is stressing grids—Uzbekistan hit a record electricity load (14.2 GW) and Kyrgyzstan saw outages as demand rises faster than networks can handle it, a warning for Tajikistan’s energy planners too. Transport & Logistics: Tajikistan and Belarus agreed in Brest to exchange experience on transport digitalization, modern management platforms, and to introduce an electronic system for road transport permits—aimed at faster, more transparent cross-border trade. Telecom Modernization: MegaFon Tajikistan reported 80 technical initiatives in H1 2026, including LTE capacity upgrades, new 4G modules, 5G testing up to 1.1 Gbps, and commissioning of fiber-optic capacity in Khatlon. Aviation Upgrade: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737-8 (first 737 MAX for Tajikistan), supporting new short- and medium-haul routes with better fuel efficiency. Trade Links: Tajikistan and Türkiye discussed expanding investment and joint industrial projects, with focus on textiles, agricultural processing and building materials. Regional Connectivity Watch: A new Belarus–Central Asia block train service is moving pilot freight toward regular runs, with part of cargo continuing to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Fuel & Aviation Security: Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries are tightening fuel supplies across Central Asia, pushing up gasoline prices and raising diesel risks ahead of the autumn harvest; Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan face limited refining options and are looking to China, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Belarus, while aviation fuel costs are also under pressure. Power Demand Crunch: Summer heat is stressing the grid: Uzbekistan hit a record electricity load as demand surged with air-conditioning, and outages in Kyrgyzstan showed networks are struggling with faster-rising consumption. Tajik Transport & Logistics: Tajikistan and Belarus agreed on a transport and logistics roadmap, including digitalization of transport management and an electronic system for exchanging international road permits to cut paperwork and human error. Tajik-Belarus Energy/Network Learning: Kyrgyz energy firms hosted Tajik delegations to share methods for reducing losses and managing peak-load reliability, including digital tools for billing and customer services. Somon Air Fleet Upgrade: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737-8 (737 MAX family), a step toward new intercontinental routes from Dushanbe with better range and fuel efficiency. Kyrgyz Tax Overhaul: Kyrgyzstan adopted major tax-code amendments affecting businesses, banks, catering and developers, including stricter rules for moving goods without EAEU documentation and new requirements tied to tax registration for delivery and transport services. Tajik-Türkiye Investment Push: Tajikistan’s economic ministry met Türkiye’s business council to expand trade and investment, with focus on textiles, agricultural processing, building materials and pharmaceuticals.

Aviation Modernization: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8) in Dushanbe, a key step in fleet renewal and plans for longer short- and medium-haul routes across Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Mobile & Fiber Upgrades: MegaFon Tajikistan reported 80 technical initiatives in H1 2026, including new 4G capacity (LTE 2600 and 4T4R upgrades), commissioning of new base stations, 5G testing up to 1.1 Gbps, and continued fiber-optic line construction. Energy Cooperation: Kyrgyzstan’s national grid operator hosted Tajik energy companies to share methods for cutting electricity losses, handling peak loads, and using digital tools like ASKUE and “My Light” services. Trade & Industry Links: Tajikistan and Türkiye moved to expand investment and business ties, with talks highlighting joint industrial projects and cooperation in textiles, agricultural processing, building materials and pharmaceuticals. Regional Logistics Push: A week of coverage also pointed to faster Eurasian connectivity—China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan rail progress and broader Asia–Europe rail investment plans that include Tajikistan. Cyber Risk for Public Services: Kaspersky flagged new Windows backdoors (OctLurk, SilkLurk) targeting government and public institutions across Central Asia, underscoring security needs for critical services.

Aviation & Fleet Modernization: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8), the first MAX to enter service in Tajikistan, supporting short- and medium-haul growth and planned routes to London, Beijing and Guangzhou. Energy Cooperation: Kyrgyzstan’s national grid operator hosted Tajik energy firms to share experience on cutting electricity losses, peak-load reliability, emergency recovery, and digital metering tools. Trade & Investment Ties: Tajikistan and Türkiye discussed expanding bilateral trade and investment, with focus areas including textiles, agricultural processing, building materials, pharmaceuticals and projects in Tajik free economic zones. Regional Logistics & Connectivity: Iran says it has agreed key coordinates for a proposed shipping route with Oman, while Tajikistan, Iran and Afghanistan reportedly agreed to launch a joint road transport corridor. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged new Windows backdoors (OctLurk, SilkLurk) targeting government and public institutions across Central Asia, including Tajikistan, since January 2025. Industry & Telecom Upgrades: MegaFon Tajikistan reported 80 technical initiatives in H1 2026, including 4G capacity expansions and 5G testing, plus fiber-optic line commissioning.

Energy Integration & Grid Modernization: At the Primakov Readings forum in Issyk-Kul, Russia’s Kyrgyz development fund chief said Central Asia can’t build a common electricity market without nuclear know-how, calling for synchronized nuclear projects in Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan with hydropower growth in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged new Windows backdoors, OctLurk and SilkLurk, in a cyber-espionage campaign hitting government and public institutions across Afghanistan and several Central Asian states, including Tajikistan. Aviation & Connectivity: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8), a key step in fleet modernization and planned new routes, boosting Tajikistan’s intercontinental reach. Bilateral Trade Push (Tajikistan–Türkiye): Tajikistan’s economic ministry met Türkiye’s business council to expand investment and trade, highlighting textile, agricultural processing, building materials and pharma cooperation. Logistics & Investment (Eurasian Rail): A Eurasian Development Bank update points to $345bn in Asia–Europe transport projects, with rail taking the biggest share and Tajikistan included among active rail expansions. Desertification Cooperation: China’s Ningxia-based center shared desert-control methods with Central Asia, including a Dushanbe workshop tailored to Tajikistan’s mountainous erosion risks. Market Risk Snapshot: Tajikistan ranked 97th in a global investment risk and resilience index update, underscoring investor caution amid regional shocks.

Aviation & Fleet Modernization: Somon Air has taken delivery of its first Boeing 737-8 (737 MAX family), the first 737 MAX to enter service in Tajikistan, supporting short- and medium-haul expansion and planned routes to London, Beijing and Guangzhou. Telecom Upgrades: MegaFon Tajikistan reported 80 technical initiatives in 1H26, including 4G/LTE capacity boosts (47 base stations on LTE frequencies), new 4G modules, and tests confirming readiness for a next 5G stage, alongside fiber-optic line work. Trade & Industry Cooperation: Tajikistan and Türkiye moved to expand investment ties after talks between the economic development ministry and the Tajikistan–Türkiye Business Council, with focus on joint industrial projects in textiles, agricultural processing, building materials and pharmaceuticals. Regional Connectivity & Logistics: A Eurasian Development Bank update says Asia–Europe projects worth $345bn are in motion across 13 countries, with rail taking the biggest share—Tajikistan included among active corridors. Energy & Infrastructure Context: Uzbekistan’s aviation fuel imports are being diversified via Georgia and Iraq as demand rises, underlining how regional fuel supply chains keep reshaping.

Telecom Modernization: MegaFon Tajikistan rolled out 80 technical initiatives in H1 2026, expanding 4G capacity by activating extra radio bands (47 base stations on LTE) and adding 85 new 4G modules; it also commissioned new base stations in 23 settlements and completed 5G tests reaching up to 1.1 Gbps, while fiber-optic line work continued. Aviation & Connectivity: Somon Air took delivery of Tajikistan’s first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8), leased from DAE, to support short- and medium-haul growth and planned routes including London, Beijing and Guangzhou—boosting range and fuel efficiency. Energy Trade: Tajikistan and China discussed expanding petroleum product supplies, with talks focused on import priorities; the same week also highlighted Tajik President Rahmon’s push to consider a large regional oil refinery. Regional Transport Investment: A Eurasian Development Bank snapshot points to $345bn in Asia–Europe projects across 13 countries, with rail taking the biggest share and Tajikistan included among active and planned efforts. Labor & Migration Signals: Moldova reported a sharp rise in foreign workers granted residence and work rights in H1 2026, with Tajik citizens among the arrivals—useful context for regional labor flows. Regional Risk Rankings: Tajikistan ranked 97th in the May 2026 Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index, behind Kazakhstan (53rd) and Uzbekistan (81st), underscoring investor risk perceptions.

Aviation & Fleet Modernization: Tajikistan’s Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8, Avicenna-named), leased from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, to launch new short- and medium-haul routes and upgrade the carrier’s network economics. Energy Trade: Tajikistan and China held talks on expanding petroleum product supplies into Tajikistan, with Dushanbe signaling priority attention to imports from China. Regional Transport & Industry: A Eurasian Development Bank update says $345bn is lined up across 13 Eurasian countries for Asia–Europe logistics, with rail projects taking the biggest share—Tajikistan included among the active and planned beneficiaries. Oil Refining Push: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building a large oil refinery in Central Asia, tying the idea to transport corridors, energy security, and industrial cooperation. Investment Climate: Kazakhstan jumped 17 spots in a Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (Tajikistan ranked 97th), underscoring how investors are re-pricing shock resilience across the region. Desert & Land Restoration: China’s Ningxia-based desert-control cooperation center shared practical anti-desertification methods with Tajikistan, including tailored approaches for mountainous terrain and erosion.

Aviation & Connectivity: Somon Air took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8) in a fleet upgrade that should unlock new short- and medium-haul routes from Dushanbe, with the airline also planning further 787 Dreamliner and 737 MAX additions. Regional Trade & Transport: A new snapshot of Eurasian rail and corridor investment points to major spending across Asia–Europe links, with Central Asia holding a sizable share of ongoing and planned rail projects. Energy & Fuels: Tajikistan and China held talks on expanding petroleum product cooperation, while the wider region continues to reshuffle fuel supply routes amid market pressures. Oil Refining Ambition: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon floated the idea of building a large oil refinery in Central Asia, tying it to transport corridors, energy security, and industrial cooperation. Climate & Land Use: China’s desert-control know-how is being shared with Central Asia, including Tajikistan, through a cooperation center and training focused on local terrain and erosion. Food & Jobs: Afghanistan’s Balkh slaughterhouse resumed mutton exports to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, boosting processing volumes and employment. Security & Cyber: Kaspersky reports suspected new cyber backdoors targeting Central Asian government and logistics-related organizations, including Tajikistan. Industry Watch: Central Asia’s gold boom is lifting incomes in small-scale mining, but raises concerns about inflation and dependence on a single commodity.

Aviation & Fleet Modernization: Somon Air received its first Boeing 737 MAX (737-8) in a fleet upgrade that will support short- and medium-haul routes across Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, with more aircraft planned under a broader renewal push. Fuel & Energy Security: Tajikistan is in talks with China to import gasoline and diesel amid falling supplies and rising prices, including possible delivery routes via Kulma and through neighboring transit countries, while Dushanbe also explores additional imports from Kazakhstan and other partners. Regional Rail & Trade Connectivity: A Eurasian Development Bank update says about $345bn is being invested across Asia–Europe rail and transport links, with Central Asia accounting for a major share of projects and rail expansions among the top priorities. Desertification Control Cooperation: China’s Ningxia-based desertification center is sharing anti-sand techniques with Central Asia, including tailored training delivered during a workshop in Dushanbe for Tajikistan’s mountainous terrain and erosion challenges. Regional Integration Talks: Central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan signed the Cholpon-Ata Declaration, focusing on transport corridors, energy cooperation, industry and logistics—while Tajik President Rahmon floated the idea of a large oil refinery for regional energy security. Agribusiness Exports: Balkh’s state slaughterhouse in Afghanistan has resumed and expanded mutton exports to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, adding jobs as daily processing and health inspections ramp up.

Regional Energy & Fuel Security: Tajikistan is negotiating with China to import petroleum products, with talks in Dushanbe focused on gasoline and diesel supply routes and authorized importers as Dushanbe faces rising prices and diesel shortages. Central Asia Integration Talks: At the Cholpon-Ata consultative meeting, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon urged Central Asian partners to study building a large modern oil refinery to boost energy security and meet domestic demand for critical fuels. Investment Signals: Tajikistan reported foreign investment inflows of about $1.9B in Q1 2026 (+23% y/y), with deals concentrated in energy, industry and mining and over 2,000 jobs expected—though FDI remains a small share of total inflows. Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Leaders also backed practical connectivity steps, including transport and logistics cooperation, as regional cooperation shifts from dialogue to implementation. Cyber Risk for Industry: A new wave of government-targeting cyber intrusions in Central Asia uses backdoors dubbed OctLurk and SilkLurk, raising concerns for ministries and logistics-linked services. Food Processing Exports: In Balkh, mutton exports to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have resumed at scale after health inspections, supporting jobs and regional meat supply chains.

Fuel Security Crunch: Russia extended its full gasoline export ban until Jan 31, 2027, while allowing diesel exports from Sept 1, 2026—pushing Central Asia to scramble for supplies as Kyrgyzstan’s fuel imports and gasoline availability fell sharply and prices rose. Tajikistan–China Energy Talks: Dushanbe opened negotiations with Beijing to import petroleum products (gasoline and diesel), including possible routes via Kulma and through neighbors, as local shortages and rising prices hit consumers. Regional Energy Push: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed studying a large modern oil refinery for Central Asia to cut dependence on external supplies and improve energy security. Central Asia Integration in Cholpon-Ata: Leaders of Central Asia and Azerbaijan signed the Cholpon-Ata Declaration, focusing on trade, transport/logistics, energy, tourism, and security—while Kyrgyzstan’s unified tourist visa idea gained support. Investment Spotlight: Tajikistan reported foreign investment inflows of about $1.9B in Q1 2026, with deals concentrated in energy, industry, and mining. Cyber Risk: New backdoors (OctLurk, SilkLurk) were linked to attacks on government networks across Central Asia, including Tajikistan.

Regional Energy & Fuel Security: Tajikistan and China held talks in Dushanbe on expanding petroleum product supply, with Dushanbe also negotiating gasoline and diesel imports from China via the Kulma border and possible routes through neighbors as diesel shortages hit the capital. Oil Refining Push: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed jointly studying a large modern oil refinery for Central Asia to meet domestic demand and reduce dependence on external fuel sources. Trade & Industry Integration: Central Asian leaders meeting in Cholpon-Ata with Azerbaijan backed deeper cooperation on transport corridors, logistics, energy, industry chains, digital services and food security, while adopting the Cholpon-Ata Declaration. Agribusiness Exports: Balkh’s state slaughterhouse in Afghanistan says mutton exports to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have started, processing about 1,000 sheep daily and doubling staffing since the export launch. Cyber Risk for Governments: Kaspersky reports new backdoors (OctLurk and SilkLurk) targeting government networks across Central Asia, including Tajikistan, with keylogging, password theft and remote control capabilities. Climate & Resilience: A Tajik case study highlights how riverbank protection and local training helped Yori jamoat avoid major damage during July mudslides.

Regional Energy & Industry Talks: Tajikistan and China held talks in Dushanbe on expanding petroleum product cooperation, with Dushanbe pushing for more fuel imports from China to ease shortages. Energy Security Push: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed studying a large modern oil refinery in Central Asia to meet domestic demand and reduce dependence on external fuel sources. Fuel Supply Pressure: Tajikistan is negotiating gasoline and diesel deliveries from China (via Kulma or through northern routes), while also discussing higher imports from Kazakhstan and other partners. Central Asia–Azerbaijan Integration: At the Cholpon-Ata consultative summit, leaders backed stronger trade, transport, logistics, energy and digital cooperation; Tajikistan flagged transport corridors and cooperation in energy, industry and food security. Investment Climate: Foreign investment into Tajikistan rose to about $1.9B in Q1 2026, with deals mainly tied to energy, industrial and mining projects. Cyber Risk for Industry & Government: New backdoors (OctLurk/SilkLurk) were reported targeting government and logistics-related organizations across Central Asia, including Tajikistan. Climate-Resilience Engineering: After July mudslides, Yori jamoat in Sughd avoided major damage thanks to a January 2026 riverbank protection project and local training for disaster response.

Energy Security & Industry: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon urged Central Asian leaders to study building a large modern oil refinery to cut fuel-supply risks and meet domestic demand for critical petroleum products. Fuel Imports: Tajikistan has started talks with China to import gasoline and diesel amid rising prices and diesel shortages in Dushanbe, with possible routes via Kulma or through northern neighbors. Regional Integration: Leaders in Cholpon-Ata signed the Cholpon-Ata Declaration, pushing trade, transport corridors, logistics, energy cooperation, and tourism, while Kyrgyzstan’s push for a unified tourist visa gained support. Investment & Jobs: Tajikistan reported foreign investment inflows of about $1.9B in Q1 2026, with deals mainly tied to energy, industry, and mining. Cyber Risk: New suspected Chinese-speaking intrusions using OctLurk and SilkLurk targeted Central Asian government and logistics networks. Climate & Infrastructure: A landfill methane-focused climate piece highlighted methane’s fast warming impact, while Tajik reporting on July mudslide recovery pointed to riverbank protection and local preparedness reducing damage in Yori jamoat.

Methane & Waste: Dushanbe experts warn that landfills are a major, overlooked methane source, arguing for faster action because methane cuts can cool warming quickly. Fuel Security Talks: Tajikistan is negotiating with China to import gasoline and diesel, weighing delivery routes via Kulma or through northern neighbors, while also discussing more supplies from Kazakhstan and other partners. Regional Energy/Trade Diplomacy: Leaders at Cholpon-Ata (Issyk-Kul) are pushing practical cooperation—transport corridors, energy interaction, tourism, and security—under the expanding C5-to-C6 format that now includes Azerbaijan. Tourism Visa Push: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan back Kyrgyzstan’s idea of a unified tourist visa for Central Asia, aiming to simplify travel and boost regional tourism. Investment Pulse: Tajikistan reports foreign investment inflows of about $1.9B in Q1 2026 (+23% YoY), with deals focused on energy, industry, and mining and expectations of 2,000+ jobs. Cyber Risk: A new malware campaign (OctLurk/SilkLurk) targets government networks across Central Asia, including Tajikistan, with keylogging and password theft capabilities. Cross-Border Industry & Logistics: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan discuss boosting rail freight and logistics links, aiming to raise trade volumes and improve tariffs. Tourism Infrastructure: Azerbaijan inaugurates the Baku Resort & Spa Hotel on Issyk-Kul, signaling continued investment in high-end regional hospitality.